According to China Customs data, from January to May of 2021, garlic exports amounted to 634,698 tons, and the export value was US$641.7 million. The export volume decreased by 18.2% month-on-month and 57.82% year-on-year. The cumulative export volume decreased by 20.26% compared with the same period last year.
Since the beginning of this year, with the second outbreak of foreign epidemics, especially the emergence of mutant strains, the pressure on epidemic prevention in many places around the world has doubled. In addition, the Suez Canal freighter stranded on March 23 disrupted the freight plans of many countries and directly caused the global freight rate to rise wildly. In May, there was a situation of “hard to find a container”.
Many garlic exporters do not dare to sign the contract rashly because they have orders, because they don’t know when the shipping schedule can be booked? This has caused a heavy blow to the Chinese garlic export industry!
According to the data from Nonferrous Metals.com: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 81 points or 2.8% on June 15 to 3025, the fifth consecutive trading day increase due to higher freight rates for various types of ships. The Panamax freight index rose 64 points or 1.9% to 3407 points, a new high since June 2010, and the average daily profit increased by US$577 to US$30,664. The Capesize freight index rose 152 or 4.3% to 3,695 points, and the average daily profit increased by US$1,257 to US$30,640.
The rising freight rates have affected the nerves of export traders. Coupled with the sharp appreciation of the RMB, it is even worse for export companies. Therefore, the export volume has dropped significantly year-on-year, which is a matter of course!
The decline in garlic exports from January to May is closely related to the international environment, but what about domestic consumption?
According to the China Garlic Price Weekly Index Report of China Logistics Information Network, in the fourth week of May (May 24, 2021-May 29, 2021), China will be jointly investigated by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Peony International Trading Center. The weekly garlic price index was 1,178.31 points, an increase of 0.8% from the index of 1,168.83 points in the third week, indicating that garlic prices continued to rise at a high level.
April to May of each year is the traditional peak season for garlic consumption in my country. Many people like to pickle “sugar garlic” and “touch garlic” and other specialty foods in this season. However, when the fresh garlic went on the market this year, the price rose too fast, which caused many people to reduce or even stop picking fresh garlic. This directly caused the situation that garlic was not sold well during the peak season.
In the season when fresh garlic is on the market this year, in all major garlic producing areas, there is a news that garlic will be “double reduced” in 2021. Double reduction means that the area and output will be reduced compared to previous years.
The “double reduction” news has stimulated many garlic vendors to enter the garlic market in advance to snap up garlic. The early-maturing garlic was almost sold out by the garlic vendors without going out of the field. There is also a large part of late ripening garlic, which is ordered by garlic vendors in advance at a price of 4,000 yuan-5,000 yuan/mu. At that time, the garlic market was hot. The garlic farmers all said happily that the harvest this year is much better than last year, and you don’t have to worry about harvesting yourself. I really don’t like it!
It’s just that the garlic vendors who purchased the land by contracting the land in advance are not familiar with the local labor. In previous years, the garlic production price of 1,000 yuan-1200 yuan/mu was raised to 1,600 yuan-1800 yuan/mu. The garlic vendor has no choice but to pay for the garlic! Some garlic farmers can use the garlic to earn part of their income after they have packaged their garlic fields with garlic vendors!
In recent years, every time garlic is hyped, it will end up with chicken feathers, which makes garlic farmers unable to slow down for two to three years. This is not a good phenomenon! Besides, there is no reason for the surge in garlic prices in the international and domestic environment this year.
It is entirely due to the impact of garlic stocks last year and the year before. In order to smoothly sell the high-priced garlic that was accumulated in 2019 and 2020, major storage companies used a little trick. Many people closed their eyes and rushed in. It seems that there is still not enough for the garlic market. My heart of awe!
The garlic traders who have been immersed in the garlic market for many years know that the garlic trading market is a “monkey market”, which jumps up and down. “I often walk in the market, how can I not wrestle?” There is no permanent victory general in the garlic market. The only thing that can achieve permanent victory is those who do not participate in the market speculation, but only provide speculation funds.
With the recent decline in garlic prices, the price of garlic is approaching the first goal: 2 yuan/jin step by step!
Now we can also see that in garlic trading markets everywhere, daily transactions are very cold. It is estimated that large-scale transactions will not appear until mid-July or even early August. The price at that time is estimated to be around 2 yuan/jin.
Garlic exports are declining, domestic consumption is weak, and when will the high prices hold on? Don’t let the Yellow River give up!
If according to the author’s expectation, the situation of 2 yuan/jin only appeared in early August, it would not be bad news for garlic farmers, but it would not be good news for garlic vendors who participated in the early purchase of fresh garlic!
Because the price of most fresh garlic from April to May is between 1.5 and 1.8 yuan per catty, the price is calculated based on 0.55-0.6 catties of dried garlic per catty of early-maturing garlic, plus the labor cost of harvesting and drying, the price is already 3 yuan. /Jin, this part of garlic will most likely be forced to store it in the cold storage.
If you save it, you will probably lose more, because the author predicts that the extremely low price of garlic this year should be around 1.5 yuan/jin.
Judging from the total garlic production in the country, domestic garlic production has increased for June in a row. Coupled with the round of garlic price increases that began in 2019, garlic stocks set a record high in 2020. Although the garlic chips factories are fully operational, But now there is a large inventory of garlic slices and garlic powder 3 years ago. How long will the garlic slices be consumed? Is it really unknown?
In May of this year, most of the garlic chip factories stopped production. On the outside, they seemed to be subject to the high pressure of environmental protection. They were forced to stop production for rectification. The actual reason is very clear to those who know how to do it!
The “double reduction” news has stimulated many garlic vendors to enter the garlic market in advance to snap up garlic. The early-maturing garlic was almost sold out by the garlic vendors without going out of the field. There is also a large part of late ripening garlic, which is ordered by garlic vendors in advance at a price of 4,000 yuan-5,000 yuan/mu. At that time, the garlic market was hot. The garlic farmers all said happily that the harvest this year is much better than last year, and you don’t have to worry about harvesting yourself. I really don’t like it!
It’s just that the garlic vendors who purchased the land by contracting the land in advance are not familiar with the local labor. In previous years, the garlic production price of 1,000 yuan-1200 yuan/mu was raised to 1,600 yuan-1800 yuan/mu. The garlic vendor has no choice but to pay for the garlic! Some garlic farmers can use the garlic to earn part of their income after they have packaged their garlic fields with garlic vendors!
In recent years, every time garlic is hyped, it will end up with chicken feathers, which makes garlic farmers unable to slow down for two to three years. This is not a good phenomenon! Besides, there is no reason for the surge in garlic prices in the international and domestic environment this year.
It is entirely due to the impact of garlic stocks last year and the year before. In order to smoothly sell the high-priced garlic that was accumulated in 2019 and 2020, major storage companies used a little trick. Many people closed their eyes and rushed in. It seems that there is still not enough for the garlic market. My heart of awe!
The garlic traders who have been immersed in the garlic market for many years know that the garlic trading market is a “monkey market”, which jumps up and down. “I often walk in the market, how can I not wrestle?” There is no permanent victory general in the garlic market. The only thing that can achieve permanent victory is those who do not participate in the market speculation, but only provide speculation funds.
With the recent decline in garlic prices, the price of garlic is approaching the first goal: 2 yuan/jin step by step!
Now we can also see that in garlic trading markets everywhere, daily transactions are very cold. It is estimated that large-scale transactions will not appear until mid-July or even early August. The price at that time is estimated to be around 2 yuan/jin.
If according to the author’s expectation, the situation of 2 yuan/jin only appeared in early August, it would not be bad news for garlic farmers, but it would not be good news for garlic vendors who participated in the early purchase of fresh garlic!
Because the price of most fresh garlic from April to May is between 1.5 and 1.8 yuan per catty, the price is calculated based on 0.55-0.6 catties of dried garlic per catty of early-maturing garlic, plus the labor cost of harvesting and drying, the price is already 3 yuan. /Jin, this part of garlic will most likely be forced to store it in the cold storage.
If you save it, you will probably lose more, because the author predicts that the extremely low price of garlic this year should be around 1.5 yuan/jin.
Judging from the total garlic production in the country, domestic garlic production has increased for June in a row. Coupled with the round of garlic price increases that began in 2019, garlic stocks set a record high in 2020. Although the garlic chips factories are fully operational, But now there is a large inventory of garlic slices and garlic powder 3 years ago. How long will the garlic slices be consumed? Is it really unknown?
In May of this year, most of the garlic chip factories stopped production. On the outside, they seemed to be subject to the high pressure of environmental protection. They were forced to stop production for rectification. The actual reason is very clear to those who know how to do it!
Garlic exports have fallen, domestic consumption has been weak, when will the high prices be held up?
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