Part I: Basic situation of 2021 garlic
1, Investigation of garlic production area in Jinxiang:
Jinxiang County will harvest 530,000 mu of garlic in 2021. In 2020, Jinxiang County will harvest 620,000 mu of garlic, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.52%. The area of garlic in Jinxiang will decrease. According to the production data measured by relevant county units, Jinxiang garlic will be 1240 kg/mu in 2021, and Jinxiang garlic will be 1282 kg/mu in 2020. The year-on-year decrease rate of Jinxiang garlic is 3.28%, and the yield of Jinxiang garlic will decrease slightly. In 2021, the total output of garlic in Jinxiang is 656,200 tons. In 2020, the total output of garlic in Jinxiang is 794,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease rate of 17.32%. The output of garlic in Jinxiang will be reduced. Jinxiang County is rapidly transforming from the main garlic producing area to the garlic economic zone.
2, Investigation of Heze Garlic Production Area:
The garlic area in Heze area is based on relevant departmental data. In 2021, the garlic area will be 979,200 mu, and the garlic harvest area will be 1.06 million mu in 2020, which is a decrease of 80,800 mu compared to last year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.62%. In general, the garlic area has declined. The yield reduction rate of red garlic per mu in Heze area is about 3.60%. The total output was reduced by 8.95%.
3, Investigation of Lanling Garlic Production Area:
The garlic planting area in Lanling County will be 353,000 mu in 2021. In 2020, the garlic planting area will be 33 million mu, an increase of 6.82% year-on-year. About 50% of the garlic area in Lanling County will be four or six cloves of garlic. This year’s area will increase by 23,000 mu. The output is the same as last year. Slightly reduced production. Half of the garlic planted in the Lanling Garlic area is four or six cloves of garlic, which are mainly used for the production of garlic rice and garlic slices, so the impact on hybrid garlic will not be too great.
4, Investigation of Garlic Production Area in Liaocheng:
The garlic planting area in 5 counties and districts of Liaocheng City in 2021 will be 466,000 mu, and in 2020, the garlic planting area will be about 480,000 mu. The garlic area will decrease by 14,000 mu, with a year-on-year decrease rate of 2.92%. The garlic area has declined slightly. The increase in production has also resulted in a decrease in production. The average yield has remained flat. According to the overall analysis, the total output has decreased by about 3%.
5, Investigation of Henan Garlic Production Area:
Zhongmu will harvest 285,000 mu of garlic in 2021 (about 100,000 mu of early maturity), and 314,000 mu of garlic will be harvested in 2020 (about 60,000 mu of early maturity). Garlic planting area will be reduced by 29,000 mu, with a decrease rate of 9.24%. According to the relevant personnel of the Zhongmu Agricultural Committee, the planting area has declined, and the total output has remained the same as last year. I have interviewed many garlic farmers and garlic merchants, and they also unanimously reported that the output is about the same as last year.
Qi County is the county with the largest planting area in Henan’s main garlic production area. According to the data released by the Qi County Garlic Association, in 2021, the garlic harvest area in Qi County will be 781,600 mu. In 2020, the garlic harvest area in Qi County will be 771,100 mu, and the garlic planting area will increase by 1.05. 10,000 mu, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.36%. The garlic planting area in Qixian County has increased slightly, and the surrounding area has been expanded slightly. The mechanized planting in Henan garlic area has increased, and the overall planting density has increased. Although the size of garlic is not particularly large, The yield is high. In order to sell for a good price, garlic farmers will dig the garlic earlier this year and the maturity is low.
The yield of early-maturing garlic was mostly reduced by 300-400 kg/mu, and some plots increased. According to data analysis, the yield of early-maturing garlic was reduced by about 7-9%. Some plots of late-maturing garlic decreased slightly, and some plots increased production. Late-maturing garlic comprehensively Looking at the average output or slightly reducing, according to the comprehensive analysis of the data, the output will be reduced by about 5-8%.
6, Investigation of Garlic Production Area in Pizhou:
According to official data, the garlic planting area in 2021 will be 656,000 mu, and the garlic planting area will be 605 million mu in 2020. The surface price of garlic in Pizhou will increase by 51,000 mu, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 8.43%. Garlic area will increase, and the garlic planting area around Pizhou will increase by 20— 25%, Pizhou garlic yield decreased slightly, the area increased, and the total output should be the same as last year. The Pizhou production area has been the production area with high yield in several major garlic production areas over the years. The main reason is that the density is high and the soil is good. Since the Pizhou production area had a higher yield per mu in the past years, it is normal for the yield per unit to decrease slightly this year.
7, Summary:
In 2021, the remote sensing data of the garlic harvest area in the main garlic production area of the country is 6,951,600 mu. In 2020, the remote sensing data of the garlic harvest area in the main garlic production area of the country is 7,330,600 mu, a year-on-year decrease rate of 5.16%, and the area of garlic harvested decreased. Since the area measurement of the Academy of Sciences does not include small garlic planting areas below 10,000 mu, the actual garlic planting area is about 7.07 million mu. Based on the analysis of the output data of several major garlic producing areas, the reduction rate of garlic production this year is about 8–10%.
Part II: Analysis of Garlic Situation in 2021
On June 1, the price of general hybrid mixed garlic was 4.60-5.00 yuan/kg, and the price of general mixed garlic was 2.00-2.20 yuan/kg in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase rate of 128.57%. Last year, the new garlic went on the market to June. On the 1st, the price has been declining all the way, and the price trend of the new garlic has basically risen all the way after the listing of this year to June 1.
There are a lot of garlic vendors selling fresh garlic in Henan this year. Almost every garlic vendor has dried garlic. The current garlic vendors are not the old vendors. The amount of dried garlic is less than 30-50 tons, and hundreds of tons of dried garlic are common. , The garlic drying reaches several hundred tons, so garlic dealers should not be underestimated, and they can also become the main force in garlic storage. However, due to the weather and the lack of experience in garlic drying, the garlic drying in Henan was not successful this year. Most of the new garlic is sun-dried into garlic rice, and some even sun-dried into slices. It is difficult to sell, and it is not profitable to sell until now. There are not many garlic vendors in Jinxiang, mainly because the price of garlic is high this year. Most of the garlic vendors in Jinxiang believe that the cost of fresh garlic is too high, equivalent to the high price of dried garlic, and the risk is too high. The garlic sellers in Jinxiang have a fair experience in drying garlic, but drying garlic is not bad, basically it is a meager profit or a breakeven. Other distributors rarely have dried garlic. The main reason is that garlic prices are high this year, and many garlic distributors are not optimistic about the future market.
Fresh garlic storage situation: In 2021, there are few fresh garlic storage along the Yushan market, Henan fresh garlic storage volume is greater than last year, this year the country’s fresh garlic storage volume is greater than last year.
The national garlic storage capacity in 2020 is about 4.46 million tons (including the remaining 910,000 tons of old garlic in 2019), and there are more than 1.36 million tons remaining as of May 1. It is expected that this year’s storage volume is negligibly lower than last year. This year the price of garlic is high, and there are many depositors waiting and watching. So far, very few reserve warehouses are reserved. Last year, depositors reserve a very large number of warehouses. There was even a situation in which one warehouse is hard to find. In the end, a lot of losses have been suffered. As of this year, basically If there is no predetermined warehouse, the current inventory fee is 320-350 yuan/ton, and the inventory fee in the same period last year is 350-420 yuan/ton. Some garlic stockers expect that the price of dried garlic exceeds 2.30-2.50 yuan/kg, so they abandon the purchase, and some are stored. The merchant expects that the price of dried garlic exceeds 2.50-2.60 yuan/kg, so they abandon the purchase. Nowadays, there are very few purchases by the store. Now part of the purchase is for the market, and the other is for the garlic in the market. The total transaction volume is not too large. , But the purchase of drying in the past two days has basically stopped.
Jinxiang County has built more than 500 fresh-keeping warehouses this year, and the total storage capacity of Jinxiang and surrounding areas has reached more than 4.5 million tons. There is no need to worry about renting fresh-keeping garlic. Garlic has not been completely dried yet. There are very few warehousing and many wait-and-see markets. Since most of the depositors will make money in 2020, coupled with the loose lending policy of banks this year, the society has a lot of hot money. Once the price reaches expectations, depositors will There will be a large number of acquisitions. Henan will add about 500 warehouses of fresh-keeping storage, and Henan Jiajin Township will add 1 million tons of storage capacity. Storers need not worry about not being able to rent the warehouse. Here is a friendly reminder that the fresh-keeping warehouse owner should start renting the warehouse in advance this year. So as not to rent out and suffer losses. It is expected that garlic storage will enter the peak season after June 10.
The comprehensive total cost of garlic in 2021 is about 5,000 yuan/mu. In 2020, the comprehensive total cost of garlic is about 4831 yuan/mu. Based on the average price of the new mixed grade garlic at 5.36 yuan/kg on June 1, the official measured yield of dried garlic per mu is 1,240. Calculated in kilograms, the output value per mu is 6646.4 yuan/mu, and the garlic farmers’ profit per mu is 1646.4 yuan/mu. The garlic farmers have a good harvest.
The target price of garlic insurance in Jinxiang County in 2021 is 1.73 yuan/jin, the insurance amount is 1800 yuan/mu, the premium rate is 7%, and the insurance premium is 126 yuan/mu; the insurance premium is borne by the insured farmers themselves (40% per mu) RMB premium), 60% subsidy by governments at all levels (a total of 75.6 RMB premium per mu). The insured area is 484,300 mu.
The export volume and domestic consumption of garlic slices and their products have increased. In recent years, the export volume has been on the rise. The annual export volume of garlic slices and their products is about 200,000-230,000 tons. The domestic consumption of garlic slices and their products has increased. More than 100,000 tons, 320,000 to 350,000 tons of garlic tablets and its products are needed every year. There are still more than 300,000 tons of old garlic slices left, which is enough to digest for a year. That is, the garlic slices produced this year are expected to be digested in March 2023. Of course, garlic slices have a long storage date, which is also an advantage. In 2020, the export of garlic slices and their products was 212.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase rate of 17.98%. The export volume of garlic slices and their products increased, with an export value of 509.3 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase rate of 21.66%, and the export value rose sharply. The export situation of garlic slices and its products is relatively optimistic.
In 2020, Jinxiang County exported 477,700 tons of garlic. In 2019, it exported 296,500 tons of garlic, a year-on-year increase rate of 61.11%. The volume of garlic exports rose sharply. In 2020, the export value of garlic was 454 million U.S. dollars. In 2019, the export value of garlic was 313 million U.S. dollars. The year-on-year growth rate was 45.05%, and garlic exports rose sharply.
From January to April in 2021, the country exported 516,100 tons of garlic. From January to April in 2020, the country exported 525,700 tons of garlic, a year-on-year decrease rate of 1.83%. The export volume of garlic dropped slightly. In 2020, the national garlic export volume was 2,179,200 tons. The export value was 1.932.3 billion U.S. dollars. In 2019, the national garlic export volume was 1.6787 million tons, and the export value was 1.827 billion U.S. dollars. The export volume increased by 29.81% year-on-year. The garlic export volume rose sharply, and the export volume increased by 5.76% year-on-year. Steep rise.
Through investigations, the consumption in the domestic consumer market is increasing year by year, and the consumption in the international market is shrinking this year, and the international situation in 2021 is not very good.
According to the investigation, all garlic farmers who sell garlic make money this year. The poor output value per mu of the early-maturing garlic is 5000 yuan/mu, the average value is 6000 yuan/mu, the better ones are 7000-9000 yuan/mu, and the fresh garlic is sold in the mid-to-late period. The good ones are 7000-10000 yuan/mu. Space garlic performed well this year. It is expected that the space garlic planting area will further expand during the garlic planting period this year. According to the current garlic prices, garlic farmers in all garlic districts are making money. Garlic farmers in Pizhou, a producing area with high garlic production, have higher profits. I am willing to do farm work, and I have all gone out to work. Most of the garlic planters are people over 50 years old. This year, the labor cost is too high. When digging garlic, cutting stems, and cutting roots, it is 1200 yuan/mu when it is low, and 1800 yuan when it is high. –1900 yuan/mu. If you are looking for someone when planting, the cost of garlic will be higher and there is a reduction in the planting rate. However, since garlic farmers are making money this year, it is expected that the area of garlic planting will be reduced by less than 10% in 2021. . The garlic area in Pizhou and its surrounding areas, as well as Qixian County, Henan Province, and the surrounding area of Zhongmu will further expand, which means that the garlic planting area expansion rate in the garlic planting period in 2021 will be around 10-15%. As of May 1, there are more than 1.36 million tons of garlic remaining in the country for fresh garlic. By June 10, when the new garlic is completely dried, it means that there will be more than 900,000 tons of fresh garlic remaining in 2020-2021.
In 2021, the remote sensing data of the garlic harvest area in the main garlic production area of the country is 6,951,600 mu. In 2020, the remote sensing data of the garlic harvest area in the main garlic production area of the country is 7,330,600 mu, a year-on-year decrease rate of 5.17%, and the area of garlic harvested decreased. Since the area measurement of the Academy of Sciences does not include small garlic planting areas below 10,000 mu, the actual garlic planting area is about 7.07 million mu. Here, according to the recognized remote sensing data of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the official garlic production of Jinxiang in 2021 is 1,240 kg/mu. In 2020, the estimated production of garlic is 1282 kg/mu. (Note: extreme data is not included). If the nuclear hybrid garlic production is 1,240 kg/mu this year, the total output this year is 8,619,981 million tons and 9,397,830 tons last year, which is a decrease from last year. 777,800 tons of garlic, with a year-on-year drop rate of 8.28%, and garlic production declined. The total annual consumption of garlic is more than 6 million tons, and the situation of oversupply still exists.
The domestic market and the international market consume more than 4 million tons of garlic each year. The domestic market and the international market consume 32-350,000 tons of garlic slices and their products each year, which is equivalent to 11.2-1225 million tons of garlic, as well as garlic yellow and pickled. The consumption of garlic and other garlic products, the country’s total garlic consumption (including exports) has reached more than 6 million tons.
Part III: Future market forecast for 2021 garlic
1: The launch of new garlic this year has been delayed for about 4 days. The launch of new garlic has impacted the sales of fresh garlic, resulting in a decrease in the sales of fresh garlic. In 2020, the remaining volume of old garlic will be large, and the total output of new garlic will decrease compared with last year.
2: The garlic market is very popular. However, due to the high price of garlic this year, many garlic distributors are waiting at the same price. Only a small number of dealers with contracts are purchasing, mainly for domestic market purchases. Not much, but it is also picking and purchasing. Purchasing is not very active. The amount of new garlic purchased for processing exports is not large. It is estimated that it will not be possible to purchase processing exports normally until the garlic is completely dried on June 10, and the purchases and storage will enter the normal track. , Now there are many dealers holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.
3: The current garlic farmers also pay attention to the news, pay attention to Kuaishou, coupled with the Kuaishou anchor daily reporting market transaction prices, and market trend analysis, this year garlic farmers also know that the area is reduced, the price of garlic is high, and some garlic farmers who recognize the current price are active Selling garlic in hand, most garlic farmers expect high sales prices, and garlic farmers are reluctant to sell them. Garlic farmers believe that garlic is not fully dried yet. Garlic sales are still 4 months away. Many of them are sold at equivalent prices. Part of the garlic sold is now sold by garlic farmers in new production areas in the periphery, and some are sold by garlic farmers in old garlic areas. Sales are mostly on the sidelines.
4: Whether garlic slices can be processed in large quantities is still unknown. Because of the high price of new garlic raw materials, the cost of garlic slices can only be lowered when the price of raw materials is low, so that processors can make a profit and the processing volume can increase. On the contrary, look at the volume of garlic slices processed. The size will also affect the price trend of garlic this year. Only the large-scale processing of garlic slices will reduce the sales pressure of garlic. Up to now, Jinxiang garlic slices have not been produced.
5: Last year, depositors booked a lot of warehouses, and even a situation that it was difficult to find a warehouse. In the end, a lot of losses were suffered. As of this year, there are still very few booked warehouses. The current inventory fee is 320-350 yuan/ton. Last year In the same period, the inventory fee is 350-420 yuan/ton. With the increase in garlic prices, some garlic storage companies expect that the price of dry garlic will exceed 2.30-2.50 yuan/kg, and they will abandon the purchase. Now they are expected to increase to 2.50-2.60 yuan/kg, and some are stored Businessmen expected that the price of dried garlic would exceed 2.50-2.60 yuan/jin, so they gave up the purchase. Now it is expected to increase to 2.60-2.70 yuan/jin. Now the increase in the purchase of stockers, but still not too much, part of the purchase is now on the market. Part of them are optimistic about the market outlook, and a small part of them are warehousing. The total garlic trading volume is not too large. This also depends on the progress of the acquisition and the popularity at the time. Old depositors are not optimistic about purchasing and storing at high prices, and most of them intervene or give up at equivalent prices.
6: From January to April in 2021, the country exported 516,100 tons of garlic, and from January to April in 2020, the country exported 525,700 tons of garlic, a year-on-year decrease rate of 1.83%. The export volume of garlic dropped slightly, and the garlic export situation is not optimistic.
7: This year, the amount of funds entering the garlic purchasing and storage is large, the bank lending policy is loose, the state funds are large, and some other hot money enters the garlic purchasing and storage.
8: Last year, the original garlic storage companies made money as long as they sold garlic. The rich storage companies also looked forward to making a handful of garlic money this year, but they were more cautious in entering the market and purchased less.
9: Most of the old garlic of the large stockists has not been sold. In order to sell the old garlic, the big sellers will increase the price of the new garlic and sell the old garlic. I hope that the garlic dealers will understand and not blindly follow the trend and purchase the new garlic at high prices, so as not to cause trouble. Necessary loss.
10: Garlic planting costs have increased year after year. The main reason is that labor costs have increased too much. Young people are unwilling to plant land to go out to work. Most of the labor at home farming is people over 50 years old. This part of the body is weak and weak. Suitable for a lot of manual labor.
According to the actual output measurement in the main garlic producing areas, interviews with garlic farmers, distributors, processing companies and other related industry professionals, volume-price ratio analysis and comprehensive multi-factor analysis and calculations, it is predicted that the running price of 5.0 cm dry garlic in 2021 should be 3.60 -4.80 yuan/kg, but because this year’s popularity is too strong, the price of garlic will run between 4.40-5.40 yuan/kg. Of course, the decline and rise of garlic prices caused by human factors cannot be ruled out. The later garlic prices should be based on environmental protection policies. Factors such as the production situation of garlic slices and the previous garlic trading situation depend on.
The current price of garlic is much higher than the price-to-volume ratio. It is recommended that garlic farmers do not hesitate to sell, and actively sell their own garlic at the current high price. Garlic dealers should also actively sell their short-stock garlic to avoid unnecessary losses. It is also recommended that stockholders be patient and not blindly follow the trend of buying garlic into the warehouse, so as not to cause the garlic storage cost to be too high and lose their advantage in the sales process.
Linyi Organic Foodstuffs Co., Ltd is a professional manufacturer and supplier of Frozen vegetables and frozen fruits products in China. Our factory has rich experience production for frozen vegetables and fruits. We have self-owned and contracted farm to plant raw materials to guarantee quality from the source. Well-experienced worker and QA team, advanced traceability system will make sure our product reached European high-quality standard.